Viewing Message #4
Time : Tue 10-Apr-2007
From : newsletter@simpol-nz.org
Subject : Simpol-NZ Newsletter No 2.
Message :
Dear Friends,
Some of you, who are also members of Sapiens, will have already read the main content of this newsletter. The central paragraph, dealing with Simpol, in that earlier newsletter has been modified, in the hope that it will make this newsletter a more helpful tool in the recruitment of new adopters of Simultaneous Policy.
Last week, I had to listen to New Zealand TV’s foremost “weather forecaster” confidently denying that there is such a phenomenon as rapid climate change. I thought today would be as good as any to dispel, once and for all, the unduly optimistic viewpoint that climate change is not occurring or, the mistaken viewpoint that it is, but it is nothing to do with human inputs and therefore, not open to human remedy.
Two days ago, the IPCC Working Group II published its 4^th report (AR4). Those of you who are interested, will find it in full at http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM6avr07.pdf
It should be noted that the IPCC is an extremely conservative panel and its reports are edited by representatives of governments, who regard news about climate change as being unwelcome and would prefer it if the topic did not come up for discussion. Several of the scientists involved in the report’s preparation are on record as protesting against the editorial watering down of the contents.
Here is a short extract:
I will finish this newsletter on a report just published on how the future looks from Dacca. Bangladesh has a population of 150,000,000 – and it might soon be on the move.
Retreating Himalayan Glaciers Spell Disaster for Bangladesh <http://priceofoil.org/2007/03/29/retreating-himalayan-glaciers-spell-disaster-for-bangladesh/>
Published by Andy Rowell <http://priceofoil.org/author/andy/> March 29th, 2007 in Climate Change <http://priceofoil.org/category/climate-change/>, melting glaciers <http://priceofoil.org/category/melting-glaciers/>, climate change impacts <http://priceofoil.org/category/climate-change-impacts/> Tags: Climate Change <http://priceofoil.org/tag/climate-change>, climate change impacts <http://priceofoil.org/tag/climate-change-impacts>, melting glaciers <http://priceofoil.org/tag/melting-glaciers>.
Bangladesh is often seen as being in the fragile front line of climate change, being especially susceptible to sea-level rise.
But now climate scientists are worrying about another equally dramatic effect – the retreat of the Himalayan <http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/climate_change/article2401715.ece> glaciers that feed the great rivers on which the country depends.
The country is one huge delta, formed by the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers. Flooding may seem to be Bangladesh’s greatest enemy, but in fact the rivers are its lifeline. They are the main source of fresh water for a country where agriculture represents 21 per cent of the economy.
Drought is already being felt. Farmers who used to grow rice have turned to farming prawns because the water in their fields has turned so salty nothing will grow there. Last year the north-west of the country faced an unprecedented drought, after the annual monsoon rains failed completely.
Professor Ainun Nishat, one of the country’s leading climate experts, says it is the melting of the Himalayan glaciers that worries him most - more than rising sea levels or changing local weather patterns. “What happens in two to five years when the glaciers are gone?” he asks.
What happens indeed?
Warm (or warming) regards to you all,
Some of you, who are also members of Sapiens, will have already read the main content of this newsletter. The central paragraph, dealing with Simpol, in that earlier newsletter has been modified, in the hope that it will make this newsletter a more helpful tool in the recruitment of new adopters of Simultaneous Policy.
Last week, I had to listen to New Zealand TV’s foremost “weather forecaster” confidently denying that there is such a phenomenon as rapid climate change. I thought today would be as good as any to dispel, once and for all, the unduly optimistic viewpoint that climate change is not occurring or, the mistaken viewpoint that it is, but it is nothing to do with human inputs and therefore, not open to human remedy.
Two days ago, the IPCC Working Group II published its 4^th report (AR4). Those of you who are interested, will find it in full at http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM6avr07.pdf
It should be noted that the IPCC is an extremely conservative panel and its reports are edited by representatives of governments, who regard news about climate change as being unwelcome and would prefer it if the topic did not come up for discussion. Several of the scientists involved in the report’s preparation are on record as protesting against the editorial watering down of the contents.
Here is a short extract:
B. Current knowledge about observed impacts of climate change on the natural and human environment
A full consideration of observed climate change is provided in the IPCC Working Group I Fourth Assessment. This part of the Summary concerns the relationship between observed climate change and recent observed changes in the natural and human environment …
…
Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases.
With regard to changes in snow, ice and frozen ground (including permafrost)4, there is high confidence that natural systems are affected. Examples are:
- enlargement and increased numbers of glacial lakes [1.3];
- increasing ground instability in permafrost regions, and rock avalanches in mountain regions [1.3];
- changes in some Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems, including those in sea-ice biomes, and also predators high in the food chain [1.3, 4.4, 15.4].
Based on growing evidence, there is high confidence that the following types of hydrological systems are being affected around the world:
- increased run-off and earlier spring peak discharge in many glacier- and snow-fed rivers [1.3];
- warming of lakes and rivers in many regions, with effects on thermal structure and water quality
[1.3].
There is very high confidence, based on more evidence from a wider range of species, that recent warming is strongly affecting terrestrial biological systems, including such changes as:
- earlier timing of spring events, such as leaf-unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying [1.3];
- poleward and upward shifts in ranges in plant and animal species [1.3, 8.2, 14.2].
Based on satellite observations since the early 1980s, there is high confidence that there has been a trend in many regions towards earlier ‘greening’5 of vegetation in the spring linked to longer thermal growing seasons due to recent warming. [1.3, 14.2]
There is high confidence, based on substantial new evidence, that observed changes in marine and freshwater biological systems are associated with rising water temperatures, as well as related changes in ice cover, salinity, oxygen levels and circulation [1.3]. These include:
- shifts in ranges and changes in algal, plankton and fish abundance in high-latitude oceans [1.3];
- increases in algal and zooplankton abundance in high-latitude and high-altitude lakes [1.3];
- range changes and earlier migrations of fish in rivers [1.3].
The uptake of anthropogenic carbon since 1750 has led to the ocean becoming more acidic with an average decrease in pH of 0.1 units [IPCC Working Group I Fourth Assessment]. However, the effects of observed ocean acidification on the marine biosphere are as yet undocumented. [1.3]
A global assessment of data since 1970 has shown it is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems.
Much more evidence has accumulated over the past five years to indicate that changes in many physical and biological systems are linked to anthropogenic warming. There are four sets of evidence which, taken together, support this conclusion:
- The Working Group I Fourth Assessment concluded that most of the observed increase in the globally averaged temperature since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
- Of the more than 29,000 observational data series7, from 75 studies, that show significant change in many physical and biological systems, more than 89% are consistent with the direction of change expected as a response to warming. (Figure SPM-1) [1.4]
etc. etc.
Those who would argue that rapid climate change, if it is indeed happening, would be happening even without human input, have to have a special insight that the 99% of climatologists on this earth, who are in disagreement with them, are lacking. We know that a proportion of the nay-sayers are in the pay of corporates with vested interests in letting the consumer cows graze on, undisturbed. http://www.ucsusa.org/news/press_release/ExxonMobil-GlobalWarming-tobacco.html
It is time for us to abandon the hope that it is not necessary for individual humans to take responsibility.
For us, as individuals, to decide to reduce our own carbon footprint and to walk softly on the fragile Earth, is insufficient. In fact it is a cop out. Were all the individuals, who are sufficiently forward thinking to consider this elementary measure of care, to do so, it would still not suffice to negate the actions of all those many individuals who live just for the day. It would certainly not suffice to counter the actions of the corporates, which, without individual consciences, are faced by an international competitive system that imposes a profit maximization discipline upon their officers.
It is only political action that is going to do the job. It is time to get active. It is time to give strong support to all mundialist initiatives as, by doing so, you spread public awareness of the desperate need for an improved system of global governance. without this, unchanged in its fundamentals since 1648, the present system will doom our species.
In regards to a reformed system of global governance, the most immediately effective political action (and even that is going to take several years to bear fruit) is to adopt Simultaneous Policy (SP.) Last week, Simpol’s UK affiliate received its twenty-third pledge from a sitting member of the House of Commons. These twenty-three MPs are committed to take meaningful action in support of SP once there are sufficient MPs in sufficient other countries, likewise committed. In the Simpol system each Adopter has the capacity to exert huge leverage with their vote. It is up to us in New Zealand to use this leverage to add impetus to the UK initiative. Many of you, who read this and who are unfortunate enough to be burdened with a vision of the future, have already taken this first step of Adopting SP. Now you must persuade others to Adopt. Our time is running out.
I will finish this newsletter on a report just published on how the future looks from Dacca. Bangladesh has a population of 150,000,000 – and it might soon be on the move.
Retreating Himalayan Glaciers Spell Disaster for Bangladesh <http://priceofoil.org/2007/03/29/retreating-himalayan-glaciers-spell-disaster-for-bangladesh/>
Published by Andy Rowell <http://priceofoil.org/author/andy/> March 29th, 2007 in Climate Change <http://priceofoil.org/category/climate-change/>, melting glaciers <http://priceofoil.org/category/melting-glaciers/>, climate change impacts <http://priceofoil.org/category/climate-change-impacts/> Tags: Climate Change <http://priceofoil.org/tag/climate-change>, climate change impacts <http://priceofoil.org/tag/climate-change-impacts>, melting glaciers <http://priceofoil.org/tag/melting-glaciers>.
Bangladesh is often seen as being in the fragile front line of climate change, being especially susceptible to sea-level rise.
But now climate scientists are worrying about another equally dramatic effect – the retreat of the Himalayan <http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/climate_change/article2401715.ece> glaciers that feed the great rivers on which the country depends.
The country is one huge delta, formed by the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers. Flooding may seem to be Bangladesh’s greatest enemy, but in fact the rivers are its lifeline. They are the main source of fresh water for a country where agriculture represents 21 per cent of the economy.
Drought is already being felt. Farmers who used to grow rice have turned to farming prawns because the water in their fields has turned so salty nothing will grow there. Last year the north-west of the country faced an unprecedented drought, after the annual monsoon rains failed completely.
Professor Ainun Nishat, one of the country’s leading climate experts, says it is the melting of the Himalayan glaciers that worries him most - more than rising sea levels or changing local weather patterns. “What happens in two to five years when the glaciers are gone?” he asks.
What happens indeed?
Warm (or warming) regards to you all,